I’ve
just been looking at the monthly labour market statistics data release from the
Office for National Statistics, mostly covering the period July-September. On
the face of things these are another good set of quarterly jobs figures with
100,000 more people in work and unemployment down by 49,000, although the
10,000 rise in JSA claimant unemployment in October takes away some of the
shine as does very weak growth in average earnings. The annual rate of growth
in regular pay (excluding bonuses) has dropped across all the major sector
groupings, to just 1.9% on average, so still lagging price inflation. Employment
may have become oddly decoupled from what’s happening in the wider economy but
viewed in the full perspective of jobs, productivity and pay the UK labour
market remains in a state of distress.
The
number of employees in employment has increased by 87,000 while self-employment
has fallen by 11,000. Significantly more than a fifth (22,000) of the net increase
in total employment and almost half the fall in unemployment is due to a big
quarterly rise in the number of people employed on government supported
employment and training schemes. Many of these will be core jobless young
people not in full-time education targeted by measures such as the Youth
Contract. The number of unemployed people aged 16-24 in the core jobless
category fell by 65,000 on the quarter, compared with an increase of 17,000 in
16-24s looking for work while in full-time education. This suggests that help
for the target group of core jobless may be substituting for jobs that would
otherwise have been taken by those in education.
The
high proportion of scheme supported jobs in total new jobs this quarter distorts
the underlying trend in growth in full-time and part-time jobs. Even so, it’s
good to see signs of increased working hours and at last a welcome fall of
11,000 in the number of people working part-time because they can’t find a
full-time job. It would seem that the jobs story in the most recent quarter is
not so much one of full-time vs. part time work as temporary as opposed to
permanent work, with an increase to 0.65 million in the number of people
working as temps because they can’t find permanent jobs.
Also
welcome in these latest figures is a surprising quarterly reversal of the
traditional north-south divide across the English regions, with the North East,
North West, Yorkshire and Humberside and West Midlands easily outperforming
London, the South East and the East Midlands both in terms of increased
employment and lower unemployment. The South East labour market looks to have
weakened markedly since the spring while in London the temporary boost provided
by the Olympics appears to be on the wane.
"Significantly more than a fifth (22,000) of the net increase in total employment and almost half the fall in unemployment is due to a big quarterly rise in the number of people employed on government supported employment and training schemes. Many of these will be core jobless young people not in full-time education targeted by measures such as the Youth Contract".
ReplyDeleteI believe you may be incorrect to describe people as being on government supported employment and training schemes.
It appears to be true that ONS is including workfare participants in the employment counts. But as far as I am able to ascertain, to describe participants, who continue to claim JSA and who are not payrolled, as employed is misleading and stretches definitions beyond breaking point.
In short the employment counts have become politicised and are spin designed to hide the true scale of unemployment.