I have just had a quick look at the latest official UK monthly Jobs Report,
mostly containing data for the three months August to October 2016, published earlier today by
the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The UK labour market finally appears to be suffering
a bout of post-Brexit vote blues which is now hitting recruitment. The number
of people employed in the private sector has fallen by 17,000 and vacancies have
leveled off, though an offsetting rise of 12,000 in public sector employment
(mostly in education and the NHS) has limited the fall in both the overall job
total and the employment rate, which is down a tick at 74.4%.
Despite this headline unemployment is down
16,000 to 1.616 million (a rate of 4.8%) on the quarter but only because the jobs slowdown is disguised by a
sharp rise of 76,000 in the number of people out of work who are economically
inactive. This masking effect of inactivity is particularly noticeable in the
youth labour market, disguising a fall of 33,000 in the number of 18-24 year
olds in work. The bad news on jobs is alleviated by a pick-up in the nominal rate
of growth of average weekly earnings for people in work (now up to 2.6%
excluding bonuses) albeit the real benefit of this is to some extent being
offset by higher consumer price inflation. Whether one looks at jobs or real
pay growth, therefore, the UK labour market looks to have entered a somewhat
slower time.
