Yesterday the Office
for National Statistics published figures showing change in public and private
sector employment in the English regions and Wales, Scotland and Northern
Ireland covering the period since the start of the recession in March 2008 and
September 2012:
The burden of public
sector job cuts across England has so far generally fallen most heavily on those
regions with greatest dependence on the public sector for employment, notably
the North East which has already seen its public sector workforce shrink by 10%
since the pre-cuts peak (see table). By contrast, London and the South East
have got off relatively lightly and along with the East Midlands are actually
still employing more public sector workers than before the recession in 2008.
But the pattern is slightly different in the other nations of the UK with
Scotland suffering a bigger percentage loss of public sector employment than
either Wales or Northern Ireland which have slightly higher shares of public
sector employment in their total employment pools.
Surprisingly, however,
although the North East is among the biggest shedders of public sector jobs
it is also the region with the highest proportionate increase in private sector
employment (almost 5%) comparing 2008 and 2012. Overall, all the English
regions now have more people working in the private sector than at the start of
the recession, though Wales and Scotland have suffered the double whammy of a fall
in both public sector and private sector employment.
The bounce-back of
private sector employment in a public sector dependent region such as the North
East could be evidence that private sector employers are becoming more competitive
in the hiring process in areas where public sector jobs were previously
plentiful and public sector pay rates relatively generous. However, the bounce
back is less strong in other English regions with similar dependence on the
public sector, and notably Wales and Scotland where there has been no bounce
back at all, which suggests a variety of factors are at work. The argument that
a big public sector crowds out private sector jobs, and hence that even bigger
public sector jobs cuts would be good for private sector employment, thus remains
unproven by these latest figures.
Regional change in
public and private sector employment, excluding the impact of the reclassification
of further education and sixth form colleges from the public to the private
sectors in 2012.
Public
sector Private sector
% change %change % share public sector employment
Peak to
latest 2008-latest
North East -10% +4.9% 22.2%
North West -9% +2% 20.3%
Yorks/Humber -8% +1% 20.6%
E Midlands -6% +2% 17.7%
W Midlands -7% +1.5% 19.7%
East -8% +2% 16.7%
London -7% +3% 16.9%
S East -7% +0.5% 16.6%
S West -11% 0.0% 19.0%
Wales -7% -3% 25.7%
Scotland -10% -2% 23.5%
N Ireland 6% 1% 27.7%
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Source: ONS
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